Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Local Government Employment Growth
Across Missouri Counties
Local Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Local Government
Employment Growth
Missouri:
2010-2022 = -0.62%
2022 = 0.52%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of local government employment growth across all of Missouri's 115 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Missouri Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the local government employment growth of Missouri's 115 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Local Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Local Government
Employment Growth
Missouri:
2010-2022 = -0.62%
2022 = 0.52%
This figure displays the 115 counties of Missouri as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual local government employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the local government employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term local government employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -0.62%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -0.62% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual local government employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-0.62%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 50 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 51 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 61 counties whose most recent (2022) local government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.52%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 40 counties whose local government employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 115 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -0.62% over 2010-2022 and 0.52% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual local government employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-0.62%) and near-term (0.52%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual local government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.62%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Missouri average (0.52%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual local government employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-0.62%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (0.52%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual local government employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-0.62%) and near-term (0.52%).
   
 
Summary of Missouri's 115 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(0.52%)
Above
(0.52%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(-0.62%)
14
36
50
Below
(-0.62%)
26
25
51
 
40
61
101
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Missouri:
2010-2022 = -0.62%
2022 = 0.52%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Missouri counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Missouri's average annual local government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.62%) as well as near-term (2022 = 0.52%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Missouri's 115 counties, 36 (31%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Missouri:
2010-2022 = -0.62%
2022 = 0.52%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 14 Missouri counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual local government employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.62%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 0.52%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 14 (12%) of Missouri's 115 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Missouri:
2010-2022 = -0.62%
2022 = 0.52%
This figure shows the distribution of the 25 Missouri counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual local government employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.62%), while they outpaced Missouri's average near-term (2022 = 0.52%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Missouri's 115 counties, 22% (25) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Missouri:
2010-2022 = -0.62%
2022 = 0.52%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 26 Missouri counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual local government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.62%) as well as near-term (2022 = 0.52%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
23% of Missouri's counties, 26 of 115, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Missouri
Local Government Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
42
-0.40
 
13
4.11
1,013
 
22
0.04
 
1
9.26
897
 
35
-0.22
 
17
3.82
408
 
36
-0.23
 
33
2.31
575
 
45
-0.46
 
59
0.97
1,569
 
5
1.24
 
61
0.90
3,131
 
48
-0.56
 
3
7.47
302
 
41
-0.33
 
42
1.99
4,310
 
1
1.67
 
10
4.26
3,209
 
16
0.25
 
68
0.56
3,069
 
37
-0.25
 
47
1.79
454
 
44
-0.45
 
41
2.01
4,000
 
10
0.55
 
66
0.62
12,646
 
11
0.52
 
58
1.07
756
 
6
0.85
 
39
2.07
1,773
 
34
-0.21
 
27
2.77
260
 
25
-0.10
 
44
1.86
601
 
23
-0.06
 
49
1.35
5,114
 
40
-0.30
 
16
3.83
7,748
 
14
0.35
 
48
1.72
2,597
 
43
-0.43
 
5
5.63
1,952
 
39
-0.28
 
50
1.31
695
 
26
-0.15
 
19
3.65
1,279
 
20
0.08
 
30
2.44
2,306
 
18
0.19
 
9
4.34
481
 
9
0.55
 
29
2.47
1,161
 
19
0.14
 
22
3.41
2,971
 
12
0.52
 
53
1.24
3,185
 
3
1.44
 
25
3.06
4,069
 
2
1.59
 
24
3.13
2,472
 
4
1.31
 
45
1.81
1,070
 
31
-0.18
 
55
1.14
2,921
 
30
-0.18
 
38
2.09
1,219
 
21
0.07
 
6
5.39
1,329
 
33
-0.20
 
43
1.92
1,059
 
38
-0.28
 
32
2.33
791
Slipping Counties
 
49
-0.60
 
110
-5.41
629
 
32
-0.19
 
73
0.07
1,481
 
17
0.20
 
77
-0.09
6,706
 
27
-0.15
 
105
-3.32
670
 
15
0.27
 
69
0.48
13,925
 
47
-0.56
 
103
-3.11
780
 
24
-0.08
 
106
-3.42
536
 
28
-0.16
 
111
-6.18
759
 
29
-0.17
 
94
-1.81
434
 
46
-0.54
 
80
-0.13
754
 
7
0.68
 
79
-0.12
15,279
 
8
0.60
 
74
0.00
2,190
 
50
-0.61
 
92
-1.48
1,195
 
13
0.36
 
85
-0.41
1,205
Gaining Counties
 
52
-0.65
 
21
3.50
325
 
73
-0.98
 
31
2.44
1,887
 
80
-1.11
 
52
1.26
483
 
58
-0.80
 
64
0.77
395
 
66
-0.87
 
36
2.21
831
 
87
-1.40
 
51
1.26
803
 
72
-0.97
 
18
3.66
255
 
62
-0.83
 
54
1.15
1,233
 
70
-0.94
 
34
2.27
1,399
 
94
-2.01
 
20
3.62
1,317
 
71
-0.95
 
56
1.11
730
 
74
-0.98
 
26
3.06
775
 
77
-1.04
 
28
2.51
531
 
69
-0.93
 
46
1.81
507
 
51
-0.64
 
35
2.25
909
 
83
-1.19
 
57
1.08
373
 
100
-3.47
 
65
0.66
1,066
 
57
-0.79
 
11
4.25
368
 
99
-2.82
 
12
4.21
446
 
84
-1.21
 
67
0.58
38,241
 
64
-0.84
 
4
6.64
257
 
54
-0.70
 
23
3.29
1,632
 
78
-1.07
 
62
0.82
978
 
68
-0.88
 
7
4.95
403
 
53
-0.66
 
40
2.04
1,151
Lagging Counties
 
101
-4.42
 
78
-0.10
1,013
 
98
-2.71
 
90
-1.10
537
 
65
-0.85
 
89
-0.91
981
 
91
-1.56
 
74
0.00
2,985
 
85
-1.23
 
93
-1.66
1,421
 
55
-0.71
 
99
-2.09
374
 
92
-1.65
 
82
-0.32
1,248
 
60
-0.82
 
96
-1.94
909
 
56
-0.73
 
87
-0.79
1,631
 
86
-1.35
 
91
-1.46
32,450
 
97
-2.40
 
108
-4.19
434
 
95
-2.07
 
107
-3.51
990
 
81
-1.14
 
84
-0.36
277
 
67
-0.87
 
70
0.35
1,422
 
76
-1.04
 
97
-2.00
835
 
89
-1.46
 
74
0.00
732
 
61
-0.82
 
100
-2.18
1,750
 
59
-0.80
 
101
-2.33
1,427
 
75
-1.04
 
81
-0.25
1,187
 
82
-1.17
 
72
0.19
1,053
 
93
-1.70
 
109
-4.40
413
 
90
-1.46
 
88
-0.82
241
 
79
-1.09
 
98
-2.05
478
 
88
-1.41
 
95
-1.90
412
 
63
-0.83
 
86
-0.65
154
 
96
-2.27
 
102
-2.41
13,793
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
2
8.03
444
 
U
U
 
S
S
761
 
U
U
 
S
S
442
 
U
U
 
104
-3.17
305
 
U
U
 
14
4.03
361
 
U
U
 
63
0.78
259
 
U
U
 
8
4.81
218
 
U
U
 
37
2.19
514
 
U
U
 
15
3.97
628
 
U
U
 
S
S
437
 
U
U
 
71
0.20
1,006
 
U
U
 
83
-0.33
302
 
U
U
 
S
S
313
 
U
U
 
60
0.96
420
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.62
 
0.52
262,787
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.11
 
1.96
14,130,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_520320_LSGL
 
   
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