Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Mining Earnings Growth
Across Missouri Counties
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
Missouri:
2010-2022 = 12.10%
2022 = 6.18%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real mining earnings growth across all of Missouri's 115 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Missouri Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real mining earnings growth of Missouri's 115 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Mining
Earnings Growth
Missouri:
2010-2022 = 12.10%
2022 = 6.18%
This figure displays the 115 counties of Missouri as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real mining earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real mining earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real mining earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 12.10%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 12.10% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (12.10%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 6 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 10 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 6 counties whose most recent (2022) real mining earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (6.18%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 10 counties whose real mining earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 115 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 12.10% over 2010-2022 and 6.18% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real mining earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (12.10%) and near-term (6.18%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (12.10%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Missouri average (6.18%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (12.10%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (6.18%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real mining earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (12.10%) and near-term (6.18%).
   
 
Summary of Missouri's 115 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(6.18%)
Above
(6.18%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(12.10%)
5
1
6
Below
(12.10%)
5
5
10
 
10
6
16
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Missouri:
2010-2022 = 12.10%
2022 = 6.18%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Missouri county classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Missouri's average annual real mining earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 12.10%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.18%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Missouri's 115 counties, just 1 (1%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Missouri:
2010-2022 = 12.10%
2022 = 6.18%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 5 Missouri counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 12.10%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 6.18%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 5 (4%) of Missouri's 115 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Missouri:
2010-2022 = 12.10%
2022 = 6.18%
This figure shows the distribution of the 5 Missouri counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real mining earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 12.10%), while they outpaced Missouri's average near-term (2022 = 6.18%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Missouri's 115 counties, only 4% (5) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Missouri:
2010-2022 = 12.10%
2022 = 6.18%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 5 Missouri counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real mining earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 12.10%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.18%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real mining earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
4% of Missouri's counties, 5 of 115, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Missouri
Real* Mining Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
6
21.41
 
10
7.21
573,947
Slipping Counties
 
2
145.43
 
27
0.00
0
 
5
33.96
 
39
-18.72
11,296
 
3
53.21
 
26
0.67
747
 
4
46.10
 
18
3.98
1,018
 
1
228.63
 
17
4.02
1,010
Gaining Counties
 
13
0.92
 
12
6.53
4,309
 
7
10.45
 
1
21.53
9,296
 
11
3.59
 
8
8.28
8,791
 
16
-6.11
 
9
7.91
150
 
10
6.73
 
7
8.32
9,322
Lagging Counties
 
15
-5.81
 
27
0.00
0
 
8
8.05
 
36
-8.22
12,211
 
9
6.79
 
27
0.00
0
 
12
2.66
 
25
0.69
21,690
 
14
0.00
 
27
0.00
0
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
20
3.95
158
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
34
-0.68
3,939
 
U
U
 
41
-100.00
0
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
19
3.98
235
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
27
0.00
4
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
3
14.10
11,073
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
14
4.17
150
 
U
U
 
24
2.68
9,227
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
13
5.73
66,384
 
U
U
 
11
6.63
12,091
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
16
4.08
2,605
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
40
-24.20
166
 
U
U
 
2
17.64
4,269
 
U
U
 
41
-100.00
0
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
27
0.00
0
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
5
11.77
5,376
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
22
3.09
1,034
 
U
U
 
27
0.00
390
 
U
U
 
6
9.52
23
 
U
U
 
35
-8.17
191
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
15
4.09
483
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
23
2.96
2,264
 
U
U
 
4
13.55
1,651
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
21
3.35
1,203
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
38
-18.08
3,163
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
37
-10.96
5,127
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12.10
 
6.18
971,113
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.09
 
26.20
170,144,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610200_LSGL
 
   
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